🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."